Can the Chiefs play enough defense to beat the Jets?

It's time for the inaugural edition of my weekly football picks. Throughout the season I will pick the teams I think will win each NFL game, along with points and the reasons for my selections.

The opening week is usually the most difficult. Nobody really knows how certain players will do with new uniforms on, and there is always one team that everybody thinks will be good, that isn't. Conversely, there is always a team everybody thinks will stink, but doesn't. The bottom line is that parity is deep in the NFL. Even though the New England Patriots have won two Super Bowls in a row and three of the past four, they are hardly a dominant team. Need an example? Try Week 15 of last season. The Miami Dolphins were 2-11. The New England Patriots were 12-1. Miami won 29-28. New England then responded by winning the Super Bowl.

Rampant parity should give hope to all you Chiefs fans out there, since it wouldn't be a big surprise to see last season's 7-9 team go 12-4 this season. Considering the defensive overhaul Carl Peterson made in the offseason, the Chiefs probably should go 12-4. But the Chiefs are not head-and-shoulders above anybody in the league. Nor is anybody head-and-shoulders above them.

That being said let's make the picks.

Oakland 31, New England 27

Line: New England by 7.5; at New England

The Patriots are 7.5-point favorites and have to be considered the favorites to win the title this season. Even so, the losses of Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, Joe Andruzzi, Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson will hurt. Plus, the secondary is not nearly as good as they would need to be to stop Randy Moss and Jerry Porter. While New England should eventually emerge as the team to beat, there will be an adjustment period and the improved Raiders will take advantage of it.

Denver 20, Miami 10

Line: Denver by 4.5; at Miami

The Dolphins will have trouble moving the ball against everybody. The Broncos return the league's fourth-ranked defense. Denver will plug in a running back, rush for 150 yards, and start the season off with a win.

Cleveland 34, Cincinnati 31

Line: Cincinnati by 3.5; at Cleveland

These two teams always play each other close -- it doesn't matter that Cleveland has marginal talent on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati should have plenty of offense this year, but they did nothing to improve the 19th-ranked defense from 2004. My guess is the teams will split the season series and I give the Brownies the edge in the Dawg Pound.

Buffalo 17, Houston 13

Line: Buffalo by 5; at Buffalo

The Bills should have a good defense and a solid running game. What they lack is an experienced quarterback. Houston could be poised to take a big step forward in 2005. They'll have to start that step in Week 2 because Buffalo will shut down David Carr and Co.

Pittsburgh 20, Tennessee 14

Line: Pittsburgh by 7; at Pittsburgh

With Plaxico Burress gone and the top two running backs out due to injury, who will complement Hines Ward? It won't matter this week because the cap-strapped Titans have McNair and little else. The gutsy quarterback will keep it close, but the Steelers are simply the better team.

Washington 10, Chicago 9

Line: Washington by 6; at Washington

The Redskins have a great defense. Offensively, the Redskins have a great defense. The Bears could have a great defense. The Bears offense? Offensive.

Carolina 38, New Orleans 29

Line: Carolina by 7; at Carolina

The Panthers are healthy and poised to make noise in the NFC. Steve Smith, Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Kris Jenkins welcome back. One has to wonder where the Saints will be mentally. On second thought, one has wondered that for years now.

Minnesota 23, Tampa Bay 20

Line: Minnesota by 6; at Minnesota

The Vikings will miss Moss more than people realize. Minnesota also has an overrated defense. However, the Viking D-line will dominate the weak Tampa front. And besides, Brian Griese is their starting quarterback.

Jacksonville 31, Seattle 30

Line: Jacksonville by 3; at Jacksonville

The Jags' inept offense meets the Seattle defense. Actually, Seattle and defense is an oxymoron. Leftwich has a proven ability to play well in the close games, and he will again Sunday.

Kansas City 28, N.Y. Jets 24

Line: Kansas City by 3; at Kansas City

The Chiefs will once again score a lot of points. Their defense won't be much better than in 2004, but they will be a little better. That's all the offense needs. Watch the Ty Law-Patrick Surtain saga.

Arizona 16, N.Y. Giants 14

Line: N.Y. Giants by 3; at New York

The Cardinals will have a solid defense this season. They showed signs of it a year ago. The offense is still a quarterback away from being pretty good. The over/under on Warner sacks will be four. Manning will continue to get better, but the G-men have O-line questions.

St. Louis 35, San Francisco 0

Line: St. Louis by 5.5; at San Francisco

The San Fran offense could make any defense look good. Even the Rams. St. Louis has never struggled to put points up. Stephen Jackson is ready to take the torch from Marshall Faulk. If the 49ers score, it would be a moral victory.

Green Bay 35, Detroit 34

Line: Detroit by 3; at Detroit

The Packers are actually underdogs against the Lions. Detroit could have an explosive offense. They don't have much on defense. The Packers do have an explosive offense. They don't have much on defense. Let the fireworks fly.

Dallas 28, San Diego 21

Line: San Diego by 4.5, at San Diego

The Chargers will take a step back in 2005. Their 2004 season was a little fishy. Let's see them do it against the third-toughest schedule in the league. The Cowboys have a revamped defense and Jones is the next great Dallas back.

Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 13

Line: Indy by 3; at Baltimore

This game will tell us a lot about Baltimore in 2005. In my opinion they still have no quarterback. Also, Jamal Lewis is banged up. The Ravens' defense will be enough to carry them against most opponents. But not against Peyton Manning.

Atlanta 27, Philadelphia 21

Line: Philly by 1.5; at Atlanta

The Falcons get revenge for the NFC title game from a year ago. Terrell Owens will eventually take his toll on the Eagles -- if he hasn't already. Michael Vick has all of 36 starts under his belt. That's just over two full seasons. It's time for him to take the next step as a passer.