Chokes ruined my week

Can the football season ever be rough on the psyche of a sportswriter trying to make predictions? I learned that the hard way last week as two upsets that I picked were oh so close to coming true. Of course, Houston and Washington both choked down the stretch and lost games in overtime, knocking some of the luster off the Kansas City win over New England.

A kicker in Tampa ruined that pick over the Bears, and a foiled comeback attempt hurt me against New Orleans. It just goes to show that three or four plays can make the difference in going 11-1, or 9-5 as was the case with me.

My 9-5 record straight up moves me to 105-68 overall this season, a .607 winning percentage. I guess that's not bad, but it sure could be a lot better.

Of course I did not pick the Thanksgiving Day games, which with Dallas' choke job was enough to put me in a turkey of a mood.

Against the spread last week I was 7-7, which is only fitting since my overall record with the point spread is 85-83-5 this season. It's amazing that I am one loss from being exactly at .500 against the betting line. Check that, it's not amazing, it's mediocre. My actual winning percentage against the spread is .506.

This week there are some outstanding games on tap, and a couple of real dogs.

The marquee games are Dallas-Giants, Denver-Kansas City, Cincinnati-Pittsburgh and Atlanta-Carolina. I even think the Seattle-Philly game could be a real good one.

Of course that's not to mention the Oakland-San Diego and Indy-Tennessee debacles that we'll be forced to watch highlights of on NFL Primetime simply because the Colts and Chargers are two of the hottest teams in the league.

Let's see if I can't get that one week where everything falls into place.

Atlanta (+3) at Carolina

The Panthers (8-3) barely escaped Buffalo and their offense has been in a tailspin. Even so, look for them to make a statement in the NFC South against Atlanta (7-4).

Panthers 24, Falcons 20

Buffalo (+4.5) at Miami

This is one of those games that are tough to pick, simply because each team is so inconsistent. The Dolphins (4-7) were shut out by Cleveland one week, only to come back and score 33 against Oakland the next. Buffalo (4-7) plays tough at home, but this one isn't at home.

Dolphins 20, Bills 17

Cincinnati (+3) at Pittsburgh

The Steelers (7-4) are not as good at home as you'd think. Try 3-2. Their home wins are against Tennessee, Baltimore (by one) and Cleveland. Not exactly giant killing going on. The Bengals (8-3) are the up-and-coming team that takes control in the AFC North.

Bengals 23, Steelers 21

Dallas (+3) at New York Giants

The Cowboys (7-4) seem to win a close one, then lose a close one. One thing's for sure the game will be close. The Giants (7-4) are similar. It's Dallas' turn to win a close one after the Bronco debacle.

Cowboys 21, Giants 16

Green Bay (+7) at Chicago

I know the Bears' (8-3) defense is really good, but this is ridiculous. Will someone please expose them? I'd like to say Favre will do it, but not with this Packers (2-9) team.

Bears 16, Packers 14

Houston (+7.5) at Baltimore

The Texans (1-10) were primed to pull the upset of St. Louis, then they remembered that they're the Texans. The Ravens (3-8) were lit up by the Bengals, but who isn't?

Ravens 24, Texans 14

Jacksonville (-3) at Cleveland

The Jaguars (8-3) have a tight grip on that wild-card spot. Even without Leftwich, they'll keep it against the Browns (4-7).

Jaguars 31, Browns 20

Minnesota (-2) at Detroit

Don't look now but the Vikings (6-5) are in the playoff hunt. The Lions (4-7) are hunting for some brains at the top of the organization.

Vikings 21, Lions 20

Tampa Bay (-3.5) at New Orleans

The Buccaneers (7-4) get to shake off that tough loss with a visit to New Orleans, er San Antonio, um, I mean Baton Rouge. The Saints (3-8) showed some heart last week, but it was against the Jets.

Buccaneers 31, Saints 28

Tennessee (+15.5) at Indianapolis

The Titans (3-8) whipped up on San Francisco last week, but who doesn't? I know the Colts (11-0) are good, but '72 Dolphins good? Maybe.

Colts 27, Titans 13

Arizona (-3) at San Francisco

Remember what I said in the last pick about San Francisco (2-9)? Well, it's Arizona's (3-8) turn.

Cardinals 24, 49ers 20

Washington (-3) at St. Louis

For three quarters last week the Rams (5-6) played el crappo. Then they brought in the Harvard guy and a switch was flipped. The Rams just found out what the corporations have known for years. As for Washington (5-6), so much for the golden opportunity of Dallas and the Giants losing.

Redskins 27, Rams 26

Denver (-1) at Kansas City

When are odds-makers going to learn about Denver (9-2) playing at Kansas City (7-4) in December? Maybe Denver's 1-9 record since 1983 will remind them.

Chiefs 31, Broncos 27

New York Jets (+10) at New England

The Patriots (6-5) aren't 10 points better than anybody right now, but they are better than the Jets (2-9).

Patriots 20, Jets 14

Oakland (+11) at San Diego

Can those Chargers (7-4) ever score points in bunches? The Raiders (4-7) just gave up 33 to Miami.

Chargers 34, Raiders 24

Seattle (-4) at Philadelphia

The Seahawks are the class of the NFC, but not by much (choke jobs by Giants, Cowboys). They are only 3-2 on the road with losses at Jacksonville and Washington, and a near miss at San Francisco. The Eagles are 4-1 at home and should be 5-0 (again, Cowboys).

Eagles 21, Seahawks 19